Speculative Futures and Barriers to Entry

An idea is worth nothing. An idea can change the world.

Speculative futures is a discipline of idea exploration. Speculative future scenarios allow us to explore the unknown unknowns. The act of design here is not to try to fix a problem.

Instead to model a possible future state of the problem and the human behaviours that result from that system change.

But even idea exploration is not an exercise in thought alone. It requires tangible design skills to conceptualise those ideas in the digital or physical world.

The cost (material, time, skilll aquisition) of creating artifacts depicted in images and video is a barrier to the design of speculative futures in quantity and speed.

While speculative design is 'conceptual' design know-how is still required. And so, is a barrier to entry.

Generative AI tools like Midjourney rapidly decreases the time and cost taken to create these speculative design pieces.

By implication, the barrier to entry for conceptual and speculative futures has just dropped. We are moving closer to the pure form of concept or idea. With the ‘design and doing’ automated.

When things become easier to do, more of it gets done.

What would a world of more speculative design look like?

Is it a world where fears or hopes become amplified. Making futures vision states and nightmare scenarios more real. And therefore more likely to be acted upon?

Or perhaps over time we will see a neutralising effect. The possible, the weird, becomes commonplace and less evocative. Pushing us towards 'real' and immersive multi-sensory experiences to evoke a response.

Planting speculative futures firmly in the physical.