Fallibilism and Product Management
Fallibilism is the idea that we can never be 100% certain we’re right and must therefore be always open to the possibility that we’re wrong. This relates to our understanding of the world - our collective basic, scientific testable beliefs. In Product, there's interesting parallels.
In Product, it's obvious that we don't have perfect knowledge and that certainty is beyond foolish. Clearly, our beliefs about a market opportunity, about the details of a product and what form and function will work are all highly uncertain.
Yet, even within our most open-minded Product plans, there are 'certainties' baked in. Core assumptions, that if false, risk collapsing any possibility of success.
As Product managers, we are all fallibilists.
A Fallibilist filter of Product then, has lessons:
all Product beliefs are imperfect. They may be wrong, or superseded. This is what spurs the generation of new alternative hypotheses and the search for next Product iteration.
even near perfect products are only near-perfect at one point in time. The world is a complex, dynamic system. Everything changes.
all Products are tentative, provisional, and capable of improvement. They can be, and have been, improved upon.
in the quest for product improvement, admitting one’s mistakes is the first step to learning from them and overcoming them.
Thankfully, much of this is now part of the Product canon.
Failed tests and new opportunities
Perhaps the most interesting lesson from Fallibilism is the notion that although a Product hypothesis may not be correct, this doesn’t imply that it must be entirely wrong.
A 'failed' Product test should not condemn a Product to an unquestioning, immediate grave. There may be kernels of useful truth within. I've too often seen reasonable, justifiable Product decisions thrown out in the zealotry of Lean or Design Thinking-infused reviews. The data says no - therefore, kill it now. This is a crying shame.
Failed Product tests contain information about what works.
Personally, I've found this lesson most useful in looking at the Product failures of others. It's easy to see the merit of your own failed efforts; harder to see in others.
Examining failed (or discarded) Product initiatives, in a generous light is fertile ground for strong Product ideas. It has the added benefit of coming with a ready-made patron or team who will jump at the chance to have their Product (or part of it) resurrected.
Rather than treating a failed Product test as an example of what not to do, ask instead - if we run another experiment, what parts of this do want to repeat.