Signals: Tools for seeing the future
Futures work is not about predicting the future. Instead, futures work shines a light on possible futures. It then asks us to plot paths to those futures we deem preferable.
A "signal of change" is a tool used in futures work. A signal is anything that is already happening today, that could be a clue to the future.
A signal might be a new invention, product, business or behaviour. It could be the first major breakdown of an old technology or the first demonstration of a new one. A signal could be a new law, or a new kind of crime. A new habit or the end of old habits.
A good signal demonstrates how something could be different. It is not a prediction; it is often an edge-case.
A signal should spark questions - what kind of change does this signal point to? What direction is it taking us in?
Signals are surface-level phenomena that show a change that is happening. Underlying that change, is a driver; a trend or bigger phenomenon that is moving us toward particular futures.
A signal has at least one driver. Spotting these drivers is made easier by looking at groups of similar signals and looking for commonalities.
The Future of Knowledge & Discovery
Some examples. I’m interested in the future of knowledge and discovery; here are some signals.
In March 2019, University of California, dropped their $11M subscriptions to Elsevier. This marks a clear shift by academia away from paid access to knowledge and towards open access.
ROAM Research, an SF startup, has created a note-taking tool that allows bi-directionally linking. It’s a shift in how knowledge can be created and interacted with and is a departure from hierarchical documents as the fundamental building block of knowledge.
Seek, an app by iNaturalist is an augmented reality application that allows users to point their smartphone camera at objects in nature and a computer vision algorithm will identify what species is in the picture. This signal points to digital learning that occurs in the environment under study and removing the separation between book-learning and practice.